Roundtable: Bold Predictions

Cole Jacobson: For starters, I’ll go with Eddie Jenkins as the 2019 CSFL MVP. The CSFL’s choice of Keegan West as the 2018 MVP was the first time since 2008 that the league champion did not also have the MVP, proving that the coaches don’t always view a championship as a requirement to win MVP. While I think Penn has a much better chance at the championship than most outside the program are likely giving it credit for (more on that later), whether Penn does win it all or not, what Jenkins and the Penn offense will be capable of will be enough to bring home the MVP trophy.

With the personnel that Penn returns on offense, this group should be the best that Penn has had since Mike McCurdy’s MVP season in 2016, and it should even rival that. Penn returns three of five starting offensive linemen, and that doesn’t account for the return of OT Matt McDermott from a year away from the program, a vital piece that was sorely missed in 2018. While leading WR Aidan Kelly and RB Jake Klaus graduated, the core of skill players including Ben Klaus, Brendan McCaffrey, Billy Murphy, Barry Klein, Laquan McKever, and Alex Fruhbeis is a very deep group.

Furthermore, Jenkins has shown MVP potential before. He led the league in total offense by nearly 60 yards per game as a sophomore in 2017, and likely would’ve won MVP that season had we topped Army in the championship game. Many in our locker room would still say he should’ve won. In 2018, he was essentially eliminated from MVP contention after missing games against Chestnut Hill and Cornell with a tibia injury, but he was still leading the league in pass efficiency until a disappointing three-INT game to end the season against Navy. 

He’s undoubtedly driven by the way last season ended, and having played against his offense as a defensive lineman last weekend in Penn’s annual alumni game, which the alumni lost 44-0, I can say first-hand that the offense already looks in midseason form. New offensive line coach Frank McConnell has received praise, and the general scheme of the offense seems to be greatly evolved, with more RPOs and quick-release throws rather than the seven-step dropback plays seen often in Jenkins’ first year as a starter. The amount of times the ball was out in 1.5 to 2 seconds last Saturday was incredible (though to be fair, our alumni defense wasn’t making his reads too difficult). With the new scheme, surrounding pieces, and individual talent that Jenkins has, all the ingredients for an MVP season are there.

At the team level, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if any of Army, Navy, or Penn won the championship, but I’m taking Army as my pick for the league champion. I see it as a very close race, and I obviously hope strongly that Penn is able to prove me wrong, but there are a couple key reasons for the pick, besides trying to avoid the homerism of giving my old team both the MVP and league champion.

First off, Army has the easiest road there. The South Division should be a dogfight between Navy, Penn, and Chestnut Hill again, not to mention that I think Alderson Broaddus will be much better than the average first-year team. Even the biggest Navy or Penn supporter can’t realistically claim it’s a lock that his team will win that division. In contrast, Army is going to walk to the North Division title. Cornell was the second-best team in the North last season, and it lost 51-0 to Army. When one team has an inarguably easier path to the title than most other contenders (think Clemson in the FBS), that team’s title chances get a boost.

Second, in terms of the personnel on the field, I think Army has the fewest question marks entering the season. That might sound like an absurd claim given that the 2018 league MVP just graduated at the most important position on the field, but Keegan West was still only one guy. And though he was certainly good, that Army passing offense’s success was also largely about the wide receivers on the field, the strength of the offensive line, and the genius of coach Mark West’s offensive system. With three O-line starters returning, plus wideouts Nitai Chun and Tom Williamson, whoever does end up earning the starting QB role should be in a position to succeed immediately, even if not quite at an MVP level. On the other side of the ball, Army only graduated three of 11 defensive starters from a team that only allowed 27 total points all regular season. 

Meanwhile, though Navy returns a strong backfield of Brayden Chmiel and Caleb Champion, who both ran for more than 600 yards, its roster still has more overall holes to fill. Specifically, Navy graduates 6 of its top 8 tacklers, including DL Gavin O’Donnell and his league-high 12 sacks. There’s still talent up front with DE/LB Troy Monroe and DL Nick Scalise (combined 19.5 TFL in 2018), but to graduate a core of defensive players that strong and repeat as champions is a tall order.

Most people would probably use the same logic to count out Penn, which only returns four defensive starters, but this would be a mistake. Focusing only on the departed names, which include four of last season’s top six tacklers, would suggest a decline is coming from last year’s 4-3 season, but it’s easy to forget about who the team is getting back from the sidelines. Besides McDermott, the Quakers also get S Josh McBriar and CB Michael Doulong back from season-ending wrist injuries, and OG Max Khozozian from a torn ACL. Another inside observation from having played in the alumni game is that Penn’s secondary will be vastly improved. After we surrendered 300+ pass yards and 4+ pass TDs to both Chestnut Hill and Army in 2018, teams definitely approached that as being our defensive weakness, but with McBriar and Doulong joining returning players Luca Curran and Josh Trybus, teams won’t be able to chuck up fades and hope for the best anymore. Pending on good health, Penn’s pass defense should be able to get back near the level of the 2017 team, which led the league with 14 INT.

The question, then, is: will Penn be able to stop the run at a championship level? It’s no secret that both academies — particularly Navy, with Chmiel and Champion returning — will try to play some smashmouth football to see if Penn can handle the loss of its top five defensive linemen and MLB James Juliano. How Penn responds to this will determine if it ends Bill Wagner’s 50th and final season as the champions or not. Based on the alumni game, the run defense numbers didn’t look great, as our makeshift alumni offense ran for 120 net yards despite a slew of bad snaps. But Penn was also resting two front seven starters with minor injuries (Dom Manetta and Matteo Murgia), and even the starters who did suit up played sparingly in the second half. It’ll come down to whether the freshmen that Penn plugs into the front seven can perform at the level of guys like Murgia, Aaron Johnson, and Jack Hennigan. 

With Army’s edge in proven defensive talent, I ultimately give them the very slight nod as the league favorites. But if anyone’s expecting Penn to stagnate, or slide down further, from last year’s three-loss season after the graduation of a strong Class of 2019, that’s dead wrong. In most cases, losing 11 total starters from a team that went only .500 in division play would be a death sentence, but Penn’s offensive depth and now-healthy additions will undoubtedly lead the Quakers to surpass last season’s record, at a minimum. Penn, Army, and Navy should all be playing meaningful games in October and November, and from there, anything can happen. 

As for an unrelated bold prediction, I have Alderson Broaddus entering the bye above .500 in its first season. The Rattlers have a very back-loaded schedule (Chestnut Hill, Penn, and Navy all come after the bye week), and they avoid Army from the North. With Cornell graduating its top four tacklers, QB Connor Ostrander, and leading WR Brooks Panhans, a Week 1 upset isn’t out of the question, but even if AB can’t pull that one off, there are enough other winnable games in its front half of the schedule.

KJH- Army or Navy wins again but how much longer will this trend continue: Army and Navy return the bulk of their stars on both sides of the ball making both teams primed for a 2019 championship run. Army needs to replace QB Keegan West but the WR duo of Natia Chun and Tom Williamson will make life easier for whoever takes over at the helm. Navy lost some studs on defense like Gavin Odonell and Dean Rye but still have the best edge player in the league in Troy Monroe and a top tier corner in Grant Hooper. That being said the days of army and navy steamrolling everyone are numbered. Chestnut Hill has been a above .500 team for the last two years, Mansfield had their first back to back winning seasons since their introduction into the league, Saint Thomas Aquinas maybe be in the best recruiting area out of all of the teams, and Penn has always been dominate and won the title not to long ago in 2016. I see army or navy taking it again this season but Penn, CHC, and maybe a sleeper like Mansfield won’t make it easy.

Carl Watson leagues the league in all purpose yards: Carl Watson lit the league up last season rushing for 316 yards, leading the league in catches with 43 and yards with 677. Throw in some return yards and he had a total of 1076 all purpose yards. The star ATH should be even better heading into his third season. That’s why I’m predicting him to have minimum 1300 all purpose yards. Another year with QB Tajae’ Irby will only provide even better results and a year older and stronger offensive line should help him dominate in the run game as well.  Watson is maybe the best individual athlete in the league so if Caldwell hopes to improve, they will need everything Watson has to give which should result in a lot of production.

CHC has the best WR duo again: WR Domoree Hill has been a force in the league since his first game back in 2015. The star WR will go down as one of the best to do it when its all said and done. His partner for the last two seasons was CHC great Reggie Robinson Jr who tore up the record books along side Hill. But now the Robinson has graduated CHC has a void to fill. That void will be filled by WR/TE Akeem Browne. The big explosive pass catcher had an ok first year but looks ready to make a huge leap this season. He should receive plenty of targets now that Robinson is gone, and his game is a great compliment to the things that Hill can do. They will make a dangerous combo this season and should put the league on notice from the jump.

Troy Monroe cracks 20 career sacks: I’ve said it a thousand times, but I cannot stress this enough DL/LB Troy Monroe is the best edge player in the league! There is no one who’s game I respected more during my playing days then his. It is because we were asked to do the same things for our respective teams, so I see all the little things that make him a force not just the numbers. But his numbers don’t lie either, right now Monroe is 10^th all time in sacks with 14.5 and 9^th all time in TFL with 28. He is going to finish top 5 all time in both categories with a great shot to finish top 3. Like I said before there is no defender’s game I respect more right now then his when it comes to dominate edge play. He’s one of the only players I will say that achieved the same level of dominance as me and belongs on the mount Rushmore of defenders to come through the league in the last decade