Preseason Predictions: Right and Wrong

Cole Jacobson: With the season being at its midway point, I’ll take a look back at my preseason predictions. I’ll open it up with the only one that’s guaranteed to be wrong: Alderson Broaddus being above .500 entering the bye week. Well, if you’re gonna make a self-proclaimed “bold prediction”, you have to go all-out with it. AB beat Post in Week 2, and was up double-digits on Cornell in Week 1 before losing, so the Rattlers were almost at 2-0 through 2 weeks and making me look like a genius. Even though they clearly are the South division’s worst team right now, once their roster becomes less freshman-heavy, they should be able to make a jump similar to those of Chestnut Hill and Caldwell in recent years.

In one of my other predictions, I picked Eddie Jenkins as my league MVP, writing that Penn’s offense “should be the best that Penn has had since Mike McCurdy’s MVP season in 2016, and it should even rival that.” I was wrong — this offense looks even better than the championship group of three years ago. Penn’s passing offense isn’t quite where the 2016 team’s was, but it’s still the best in the CSFL, and how good Penn’s running game has been is off the charts. 

Penn’s average of 269.2 rushing yards per game would be the highest in the league since Navy’s 2011 team (290.0), and Penn’s average of 4.5 rush TD per game would be the highest since in the league since at least 2003, and probably ever. (The CSFL’s website only has statistics to 2003). The whole offense has been mowing down everything in its path, but Jenkins has been the face of it, leading the league in pass efficiency (178.5), yards per pass attempt (10.5), rush TD (11), total TD (18), and total offense (241.8 yards per game), most of those coming by big margins. I’m not calling it a complete lock that he wins MVP — there hasn’t been an MVP whose team finished outside the top-2 since Army WR Geoff Phillips in 2008, and Penn has to win at least two more games to make the championship — but at the very least, he’s the heavy favorite to take it home.

At the team level, I wrote that “it wouldn’t surprise me at all if any of Army, Navy, or Penn won the championship”, and while that wasn’t a hot take, it’s proven to be correct so far. Though Chestnut Hill and Caldwell have threatened those teams at times, the “Big 3” teams are clearly still the league’s top tier; Navy is undefeated, Army’s only loss is by 7 to Navy, and Penn’s only loss is by 3 to Army. Many expected to Penn to fall off after its worst season since 2014 and the graduation of seven defensive starters, but I wrote that the team would undoubtedly surpass last season’s 4-3 record, at a minimum. Penn only needs two wins to do so, and it has at least three games left, so that pick should be fulfilled.

In the preseason, I ended up giving Army the very slight edge as the league champion, largely based on the easier road it had there than the South division teams. That logic still stands: Army is still a lock to play in the CSFL Championship Game, while the South is up for grabs between Navy and Penn. But the Black Knights haven’t been perfect. Their secondary is elite, and the overall defense has more or less met expectations (even the 235 rushing yards they allowed to Penn in Week 1 is below Penn’s average, which is absurd), but their passing game has underwhelmed after the departure of 2018 MVP Keegan West. Army was outgained by Penn in total yards, 411-346, in a Week 1 win, and the following week, Army threw for only 5.3 yards per attempt and four INT in a 14-7 loss to Navy.

With the league’s only 4-0 record, Navy might be the natural favorite, but the Midshipmen’s undefeated mark has masked their own problems. Navy QB Brayden Chmiel has completed a meager 33.3% of his passes, worst out of the 10 starting QBs in the league. Of course, 57 pass attempts is a small sample size, and it’s unfair to jump to conclusions without watching all games live and seeing which passes were dropped, or throwaways, etc. But 33.3% is 33.3%, and championship teams don’t complete only one-third of their passes in 2019. Chmiel was benched in the 2nd quarter of last week’s win over Caldwell, so it remains to be seen how Navy handles the QB situation going forward. But whoever starts will need to be better if Navy wants to win it all, especially considering that Navy’s run defense has taken a step back from last year (167 rush yards allowed to Caldwell in Week 4).

Though Penn is the only “Big 3” team that hasn’t beaten either of the others yet, it doesn’t have a specific weakness as glaring as Army and Navy do. Penn’s run defense was its biggest concern entering the season, and while it hasn’t been perfect this season (135 rush yards allowed to Army, not counting sacks), it still has easily been one of the league’s better groups. With so much DL/LB talent graduating, it was imperative that Penn got a great freshman class to fill some of those spots, and the Class of 2023 has blown past expectations. Freshmen Lewis Evans, Caleb Pierce, Davis Buchanan, and Travis Legum have all seen serious minutes in the front 7 this season and excelled, and to have that much talent in one class bodes well for the program’s future. For now, though, the group will need to have its best day yet against Navy’s Caleb Champion and Chmiel (if Chmiel starts) in the biggest game of the regular season. I can’t backtrack on my preseason pick for the sake of competition, but if I was making a fresh pick, I’d take Penn to win it all. With the league’s unquestioned top offense, a vastly improved secondary, and a front 7 that’s young but has shown a lot of potential, the Quakers have the most well-rounded team in the CSFL.

For the league’s biggest surprise, I’m going with Caldwell. The Cougars are 3-1 on the field after going a winless 0-7 last season. Caldwell had no seniors on its 2018 roster, so some improvement was expected. After all, what team has ever returned virtually its whole starting lineup and not gotten better the next year? But the same concept was true about Caldwell going from 2017 into 2018, and there wasn’t nearly the same improvement. Despite their 3-1 record, it’s actually Caldwell’s only loss that showed just how far it has come. Caldwell ran for 167 yards against defending champion Navy and was tied, 10-10, in the fourth quarter, before Navy ended up pulling away to win 23-10. A game like this was one of the best things that could happen to the league. Parity has been an issue with the CSFL for a while — only three teams have won a championship since 2007 — and to see one of the league’s juggernauts on the ropes against a third-year program is major. In any football league, the worst possible situation is where one or both teams in a game feel like the contest “doesn’t matter”, either because it has no championship implications and/or because both teams know who’s going to win. There probably won’t ever be a time where all 10 teams are realistic title contenders, but to see a few more games like last Friday’s will benefit the CSFL greatly.

As the league’s biggest disappointment, it has to be Cornell. I expected some regression from last year’s 5-2 season after Cornell graduated its QB, top skill player, and top four tacklers from 2018, but nobody could’ve thought the drop-off would be this steep. Cornell’s been in the top half of the league for most of the past 15 years, but this year’s team is 1-3, with the lone win coming over a team playing its first-ever game, in a game where Cornell was down 14-0 after the first quarter. Cornell did not look like it belonged on the same planet as Penn or Navy, and its third loss was to a St. Thomas Aquinas team that has lost each of its other three games in 2019 by at least 25 points. Injuries haven’t helped Cornell, especially considering that QB Aneesh Agrawal hasn’t played since suffering a concussion in the first half vs. Penn in Week 2, but the product on the field has been miles below the school’s standard.

KJH: (Army or Navy wins again but how much longer will this trend continue)

This take still looks somewhat strong. Navy will enter week five 4-0 while Army enters week five 3-1. Army’s only loss this season was a 14-7 loss against. While Army has the much easier road Navy has more work to do. Navy plays Penn next in a game that likely will determine who represents the southern division in the title game. While Army and Navy will continue to be powerhouses a glaring observation can be made. The Southern Division is WAY better then the Northern division right now. So far this season the Southern division is 6-3 when facing a Northern division foe. Match ups between Northern division rivals have been mostly noncompetitive with an average scoring differential of 36 points, while the much more competitive Southern division has a average scoring differential of 20 points.  The Southern division right now is better and that’s just how it is. The days of Navy and Army just walking over everyone are done, definitely in the south. The last few weeks in this season will continue to show this fact.

(Carl Watson leagues the league in all purpose yards)

I was off on this one but for unforeseen reasons. The first being the unexpected injury to Soph QB Tajae Irby. Unfortunately, the young QB went down after the first game and will miss the remainder of the season. Best wishes to him for a speedy recovery. That injury has had an impact on Watson’s number, the two young players had a great chemistry last season that resulted in a lot of big plays. Jr QB Steven Yost and Fr QB Timothy Palmer have taken over and they have done some good things. They’ve made some plays and won some games, but Irby’s presence of the field is surly missed. Another reason Watson’s numbers have dipped is due to Soph RB Armani Burmudez bursting onto the scene. The new RB has become the favorite option out of the backfield receiving most of the carries. Lastly teams have keyed in Watson. When you take the league by storm teams are going to have you circled on the scouting report. You still have to find a way to impact the game but Caldwell is winning games so it hasn’t been to much of an issue for them although I’m sure they would love to see Watson go off to open things up for everyone else. Caldwell gets ready for a matchup against Army, a perfect game for Watson to show out against one of the best teams in the league.

CHC has the best WR duo again

This prediction has proven to be true. Sr Domoree Hill and Jr Akeem Browne have dominated since week 1. The two pass catchers have combined for 39 catches 607 yards and 8 touchdowns. Hill will go down as maybe the best receiver in CSFL history and Browne is making his case to be called the best tight end in the league. Even though it was in a loss to Penn the two elite talents played the best game they ever played as a pair finishing with 13 catches 197 yards 3 touchdowns.  Expect Hill and Browne to really apply the pressure in the second half of the season as Chestnut Hill looks to finish strong.

Troy Monroe cracks 20 career sacks

This was more of a factual statement than a prediction. Sr LB Troy Monroe came into this season with 14.5 sacks. 4 games in he now has 17.5 sacks. With 3 games left and possibly a playoff game he should have no problem getting to the 20-sack mark. He also now has 37.5 tackles for loss which is good for 4^th all time in league history. The stud LB is on my short list for “Don Award” which I will be giving to the most dominate front 7 defensive player this season. The Navy defense has some top tier guys around him, but that defense is not as good as it is without Troy Monroe and that’s a fact. Not a lot of guys in the history of the league can do what he does, and he proves it every game. I will continue watch Monroe closely and ill be as happy as anyone when he gets to the 20 sack mark.