CSFL 2020 COVID-19 Discussion

Cole Jacobson: Two key disclaimers to start this off: first, this is what we think the CSFL will do, not necessarily what we believe it should do. Second, when it comes to estimating COVID-19’s impact on football, or any sport for that matter, there’s one statement that has to be made: no matter how educated your guess is, it’s still ultimately a guess. As renowned infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said in March, “you don’t make the timeline [for society returning to normalcy]; the virus makes the timeline.” Months after his statement, there’s still plenty of uncertainty at play, and predicting how college athletics will handle the epidemic is exponentially more difficult than choosing a league champion or MVP (both of which, for what it’s worth, I did correctly last September.)

But while there’s still a myriad of information that we don’t know how the virus’ infection rates, testing mechanisms, and vaccine creation will evolve, we can look at what we do know to put together the best guess for the CSFL’s course of action this season.

What do we know? For starters, the Ivy League has proven that it will take the most cautious stance possible. Earlier in 2020, the Ivy League became the first Division I conference to cancel its men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, and shortly after that, it became the first D-I conference to cancel spring sports altogether. Quite simply, the Ivy League will take the most risk-averse position if/when there’s any doubt about student-athletes’ well-being, and if the conference does indeed postpone or cancel varsity sports for the fall as well, that will trickle down to the CSFL’s Ivy schools.

Why is this important? In my opinion, there’s no CSFL season without its Ivy League teams. It’s not that the league couldn’t logistically handle losing two teams; as a matter of fact, it would be really easy, since a reduction to an eight-team league could result in the regular season schedule returning to a round-robin format. As Kyle will expand upon, the CSFL’s coaches have discussed options for a scenario where the Ivy League cancels fall sports. But the issue isn’t one of logistics, but rather one of principle. Penn and Cornell are two of the four teams (joining Army and Navy) that have been in the CSFL since the 20th century, and those four teams are the only ones out of the CSFL’s current ten programs that have ever won a league championship. Thus, when push comes to shove, I don’t think the CSFL would enact any of the alternate scheduling formats it has discussed. The league is defined by those four schools, and a scenario where the league proceeds without two of them is unlikely, in my opinion.

The Ivy League has not given any outright statements about the status of varsity sports, but if one reads between the lines, it’s hard to be too optimistic about a full return by September. In a May 21 statement to its student body, Penn wrote, among other things, that it is evaluating requiring all members of the Penn community to “avoid large gatherings of 25 or more people, including all co-curricular and extracurricular activities”, and that “travel from and returning to greater Philadelphia would be discouraged and, in those instances when travel is necessary, the person(s) traveling would need to agree to self-isolate upon returning to campus.” While neither of those suggestions has been formally enacted as a rule yet, either one would make playing NCAA or sprint football an impossibility.

Another key factor that pertains specifically to the CSFL: unlike every FBS conference, it does not have the sense of urgency that comes from being tied to the actions of a higher governing body. For example, suppose the College Football Playoff comes out and says it is planning for a January championship game. If the Pac-12 decided that it wasn’t comfortable playing football until the spring, its hands would be tied, because delaying its own conference play by a few months would leave it out of championship contention. (Of course, this assumes that the Pac-12 actually has a shot of sending a team to the playoffs, but we’re just having fun with hypotheticals here.)

In contrast, the CSFL doesn’t have to cater to the demands of the NCAA. If the NCAA decided that it wanted to have a fall season but the CSFL wanted to play in the spring, no involved parties would have a problem with that arrangement. One could argue that the Ivy League is the CSFL’s equivalent of a governing body, but even in that case, there’s no way the Ivy League will be ready for football before the rest of the NCAA is — in other words, the Ivy League won’t force the CSFL to speed up, whereas the NCAA could do so to some of its FBS conferences that want a taste of bowl season.

Also playing into the CSFL’s lack of urgency are the financial implications. Put simply, American colleges with FBS programs need football to happen, even if the season is slightly delayed. You can check out this fantastic feature from ESPN for more details, but as a brief summary, early estimates are that the 65 Power 5 schools would collectively lose more than $4 billion in football revenue, with almost one-third of that coming from ticket revenue. Because the extreme profit from college football funds almost every other athletic program at these schools, if there’s no football, then there’s no athletics at all. The CSFL doesn’t need a season to happen to this extent. Save for maybe Mansfield, none of the CSFL schools financially depend on sprint football in this manner, meaning that they could survive a delayed or canceled season far more feasibly than Georgia or Texas A&M could.

Add all of these factors together, and you can probably discern my guess; I believe that the CSFL will delay its season to the spring semester, making “spring sprint football” a reality. I don’t think the CSFL will outright cancel its season; these kids and coaches want to return to action badly, and whenever virus testing becomes accessible and accurate enough to do so, there’s no reason not to let the boys play. As Kyle will elaborate on, most coaches share this stance as well. 

But expecting that to happen within the next three months is optimistic. According to SI, a “PCR” test (the most widely used and reliable diagnostic test for the virus, involving a Q-tip going into the nose) costs around $100-$200 on average as of now, which means that to test a roster of 50 players even once (let alone all of the coaches, equipment managers, athletic trainers, etc. who need tests) has costs nearing five figures. Multiply that by the sheer amount of times that each of these people would need to be tested during a full football season, and the figure becomes daunting to sprint football programs that struggled to raise money even before COVID-19 struck America. Not to mention that having proper testing doesn’t ensure that the virus’ prevalence will be low enough for schools to feel comfortable playing; look at how many FBS schools have already seen spikes in cases this summer, and that’s just with mere no-pads workouts.

Needless to say, first-year CSFL Commissioner Dan Mara has his hands full right out of the gate. But the bottom line here is simple: the only certainty is that nothing is certain.

Kyle Johnson-Hackett: This upcoming fall will be the most the intriguing sports season in my living memory.  The COVID-19 outbreak as well as the call for systematic and social reform presents a challenge for all sports team this upcoming season. One interesting thing that would make for an excellent case study is how the new wave of technological learning has impacted learning football. Throughout these last few months coaches and players have only been able to communicate through Zoom and phone calls. While this may have been a normal occurrence in summers past, the added effect of having no spring ball or contact puts an even greater emphasis on an athlete’s ability to learn through technology as well as a coach’s ability to teach through technology.

When we focus in and look at the CSFL, the effects of COVID-19 pose the same threat that it poses for all other football leagues/divisions. Something that I believe would help all the teams in the CSFL would be to push back the start date. Adding the missed spring practices to the start of the season would not only improve the product teams would be bringing to the table week 1, but it would also go along way for player safety. Individual workouts, strength training, conditioning, and a athlete’s drive all play apart in a players skill development and body development. But as I’m sure many players and coaches can attest to the only thing that gets you in football shape is football. Having those extra practices in that team setting will only prove to be beneficial for all athletes and coaches involved.  We would likely see more consistent football week 1 than were used to seeing in seasons past.

Cole Jacobson touched on the current COVID-19 situation (see above for details), so I wont spend much time on that. With the information we get each week plus the differences in how states are handling things, everything we know about the situation could change at a moments notice. When we look at the situation with other leagues the NCAA may ultimately have some input on a final decision. With the CSFL the NCAA has no such power. Because of that commissioner Dan Mara along with all ten head coaches could essentially do whatever they agree is best. Since this article has been published two schools, Mansfield University & Chestnut Hill College, have announced that for the time being they are headed back to campus this fall. This is great for the CSFL and this upcoming season. As things continue to unfold some of the other schools may soon make it known what their plans are for this fall.

Assuming the worst is behind us and any new information helps the situation, I think the season will start one week to possibly one month later than previous seasons. As states continue to open, more information comes out, and life begins to return to a level of normalcy I believe many schools will have an on campus fall semester. While some schools may only offer online learning, the ten schools that make up the CSFL will likely be ready to go this fall. The only two schools that might be a concern are University of Pennsylvania and Cornell University. The two schools are members of the Ivy League so they may be in a situation where they adhere to an Ivy League ruling over an NCAA or CSFL ruling. That situation would not be ideal, but the league has contingency plans if that were to happen.

A spring season is a concept that’s been discussed before. If it’s the only feasible way I’m sure everyone involved would adapt, but for the time being I’m keep my attention on the idea that the season still starts sometime in the fall. There’s a lot of time that still must pass between now and the start of the season. I am no doctor, I do my best to stay informed just like everyone else. Based on current information along with two schools already planning to come back I believe the CSFL season will be played. Worst case scenario in terms of time, we get a spring season. Worst case scenario in the fall I think the season would start maybe a month late. Best case scenario which I think is likely, we get the season one or two weeks later than usual.  This is yet another reason this CSFL season may be the most intriguing ever. Increased media coverage, COVID-19 news, and top of the line talent will combine for an amazing 2020 CSFL season!